Comments on: Bird Flu Outbreak On Suffolk Turkey Farm

by: Roger Thomas

Mon, 12 Feb 2007 14:15:24 +0000

If you click on Benedict Brogans blog link above, in the comments you will find a credit

by: Sue Stewart

Fri, 09 Feb 2007 16:46:44 +0000

Thank you so much for those links. I’ll be taking a good look at those.

by: Roger Thomas

Thu, 08 Feb 2007 19:38:36 +0000

QED
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/02/bad_news_for_be.html

by: Roger Thomas

Thu, 08 Feb 2007 16:12:28 +0000

Sorry I will get this right sometime. This is the report on FMD you need to make sense of what I have just written
http://www.mp2.worldfriend.com/article_1_foot_and_mouth.htm

by: Roger Thomas

Thu, 08 Feb 2007 16:08:56 +0000

Sorry I thought you had gone into my website from the blog and got the report. I was working on the business proposal for the Dome at the time FMD broke out, compared to that FMD was a minor environmental blip. The key line is “Due to the masking affect of the lag time of the incubation period” in the section Analysis of Reaction Time at Onset of Epidemic.
Minister Nic Brown always said the epidemic was under control. After the PM got this report, Nic Brown started using the above scientificaaly correct line above “Due to th…”. ie if a journalists asks a question, you cannot give them a truthful answer for 14 days.
The whole thing about the PM taking control of the epidemic was a big PR exercose and nothing else. Tony Blair was seen striding around the country trying to bring the epidemic undercontrol. What the media and public didn’t know was it was already preordained. It was going to be undercontrol by May on the predictions of the models. Though in the media it looked like TB taking control had magically solved the problem. It was already solved when he took control.

In terms of world chicken production Thailand is the 4th 415,000 tonnes and china 5th 400,000 tonnes based on these figures
http://www.foodmarketexchange.com/datacenter/product/poultry/chicken/dc_pi_pt_chicken01.htm
The intensive poultry industry in Asia is huge as a % of their GDP. The theory is efflluent leaking from intensive poultry units where H5N1 originated, as MRSA does in hospitals, contaminated water courses and lakes. Giving the disease to wild birds. To protect the world intensive poultry industry wild birds are being blamed. They are the innocent victims of the whole affair.
The villagers got the disease from chickens that had been given to them from trucks that were transporting poultry from one unit to another. They did indeed fall off the back of a lorry. Their own free range chickens and wild birds were never the source of the disease. It is convienient to blame them though to protect the intensive industry.

by: Sue Stewart

Thu, 08 Feb 2007 15:09:31 +0000

I meant the report for the PM.

I think what I was trying to say in the rest of my comment (and failing miserably) is that coverage keeps skirting around the idea that intensive rearing is the very heart of the problem - though I confess I didn’t realise the actual scale of production in Asia. I stand corrected.

When someone spoke about free range chickens being less likely to get bird flu (I think it was on Newsnight but I’ve had a sleep since then, so I apologise if I’ve garbled the details), the background picture that went with the argument ‘Asia is where it all started’ wasn’t of an intensive unit, it was of a Vietnamese village with chickens wandering freely in and out of the houses - no doubt referencing the children’s story - implying that free birds were the problem.

by: Roger Thomas

Thu, 08 Feb 2007 10:58:48 +0000

Which report?

Intensive poultry production in Asia is very big. Most products originate from there. The theories are around effluent from the instensive plants leaked into waterways and leakes etc infecting wild bird populations.

Last year there were scences of a village were a number of children died. I think it may have been Vietnam, these shown pictures of the villagers chickens ruuning around free. What didn’t get much exposure was that it was beleived the poultry that caused the infection had ben given to the villagers from truckers moving animals to and from plants because they felt sorry for them and tried to help them out.

Not fully up to date but I think the WHO wants a big drive, certainly moved it up the agenda, on Bird Flu spread from wild birds. There again the new head of the WHO is I believe Chinese or Vietnamise. both countries with a vested interest in protecting main export industries of, intensively produced poultry.

Intensive poultry production in Asia is huge!

by: Sue Stewart

Thu, 08 Feb 2007 08:51:07 +0000

That was your report? I agree that the wild bird theory is - well, wild.

Everyone still seems to be playing down the intensive production issue - when someone tried to raise it a few nights ago, they were basically told ‘they don’t do it in Asia and that’s where it all started.’

Seems ludicrous to me - I can’t see a direct comparison with free range farming here. Or am I missing something?

by: Roger Thomas

Tue, 06 Feb 2007 14:48:29 +0000

I produced the report for the PM that Nic Brown was quoting from in the media (when the Gov started to get FMD right), also to the MSPs that respnded to the Scotland Ecological Superpower report I sent a report on Bird Flu went they found the dead swan at Cellardyke, not far from here. I still believe it is intensive production methods that are giving the disease to wild bird populations. What are the chances of ‘the’ wild bird with it finding ‘the’ ventilation shaft. 10 monkeys with typewriters complete works of shakespeare comes to mind.